Stochastic population forecasts based on conditional expert opinions
نویسندگان
چکیده
منابع مشابه
Stochastic population forecasts based on conditional expert opinions
The paper develops and applies an expert-based stochastic population forecasting method, which can also be used to obtain a probabilistic version of scenario-based official forecasts. The full probability distribution of population forecasts is specified by starting from expert opinions on the future development of demographic components. Expert opinions are elicited as conditional on the reali...
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An approach is presented to multi-expert’s opinions combination based on the Dempster-Shafer evidence theory. In the method, we use multi-expert’s knowledge as evidence, the possible value of weight as frame of discernment, expert’s evaluation to a weight on frame of discernment as basic probability assignment, and use D-S rule combining to give fusion basic probability assignment m. Finally, t...
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Con icts of interest arise between a decision maker and agents who have information pertinent to the problem because of di erences in their preferences over outcomes. We investigate how the decision maker can extract the information by distorting the decisions that will be taken. We show that only slight distortions will be necessary when agents' signals are sufciently accurate or when the numb...
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Background In 2003 the Wall Street Journal (WSJ) introduced its Monthly Economic Forecasting Survey. Each month the WSJ polls between 50 and 60 well-known economic experts asking their forecasts of future key economic variables such as GDP, inflation, US treasury rates, unemployment, housing starts, and other data. The forecasts are always for set times of the year, namely the ends of the first...
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I analyze a model of advice with two perfectly informed experts and one decision maker. The bias of an expert is her private information. I show that consulting two experts is better than consulting just one. In the simple “peer review” mechanism, the decision maker receives just one report, and the second expert decides whether to block the first expert’s report. A more rigid peer review proce...
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ژورنال
عنوان ژورنال: Journal of the Royal Statistical Society: Series A (Statistics in Society)
سال: 2011
ISSN: 0964-1998,1467-985X
DOI: 10.1111/j.1467-985x.2011.01015.x